MY TRADING DAIRY-20-Mar-12

yesterday's position is squared off with 6.2 points loss. and shorted at 5291 thinking market go down since it opened with -ve bias. but price moved up to 5314. with 20 point filter i squared off at 5311.47. also ORB triggered on +ve side. but after touching 5314 price started coming down. again at 5291.2 took short. i could not understand sir's comment on @5264 NS. i mistook his advice and squared off at 5288.5. later even though price is moving down i just observed and did not trade.
as price closed above WLEma yesterday i thought reversal might happen. hence i took long yesterday. later i understand "closing above/ below weekly values indicate sideways movement for the next day or so, especially when Day and Hour closing below/above values. Ms. Smita helped me to understand this. today also scenario as yesterday with little difference ie., Hr closes are erratic. i will wait tomorrow   and observe. also JNSAR value is 5375. there is a time to take trade.

IMPORTANT NOTES

Using HEma & LEma for Trading from Tech.Table(TT):
In the TT, there are four guidelines given for using HEma & LEma in trading:-
When prices move above Low Ema & Closes: Buy on dips to High ema+
When prices move above High Ema & Closes: Buy & Hold as upward momentum picks up.
When Prices move below High Ema & Closes: Sell on rises to Close Ema/ Low Ema-
When Prices move below Low Ema & Closes: Sell & Hold as downward momentum picks up.

Trend indicator in TT is 5DEma. One could opt for JNSAR too.

While the market is comfortably above 5DEma/JNSAR, the close below HEma suggests weakening of upward momentum which means short term traders would move into sell on rises...investors have taken a pause as well as do part booking.
Subsequently, if market survives the LEma, it would attempt to move higher. In a strongly trending market, such as the current one, market is coming only upto 5DEma so far. And after a two days of sideways move, it has closed above DHEma & poised to take another move higher. In normal conditions, the close below HEma generally takes the market towards LEma-20pts.
Markets have occasionally closed above HEma but has gapped down next day. Most TA studies suggest overbought conditions but the corrections have been of “intraday” nature so far.

While the market is comfortably below 5DEma/JNSAR, the close above LEma suggests weakening of downward momentum which means short term traders would move into buy into dips...investors return to re-enter into their fallen favourites.
Subsequently, if market is unable to close above HEma, it would attempt to move lower again and the downward momentum returns once it closes below LEma.
Knowing the market strength/ weakness with the help of prices’ positioning in the Tech.table of different Time frame, one could choose good trade set ups and initiate trades at appropriate levels. The levels are arrived at using Pivot table and Tech.table and other considerations such as Fibonacci table, Elliott wave study, etc.

While reading the TT during uptrend, it is very important to know that as long as the Week TA is in upmode(green), the down (red) that appears in day TA will not give sharp falls except at the point of major reversal. Similarly as long as the Day TA is in upmode(green), the down (red) that appears in Hour TA will not give sharp falls except at the point of major reversal. And during downtrend, read the same appropriately by respecting the higher T/F TA. ......BY ILLANGO SIR

DATES OF REVERSALS

FROM FEB 22nd 2012
6/03, 10/03, 15/03, 20/03, 25/03, 31/03,
6/04, 13/04, 21/04, 29/04,
7/05, 16/05, 26/05
4/06, 15/06, 26/06, 
8/07, 20/07,
1/08, 14/08


Observe +/- 3 days of these dates. There may be trend reversal in NIFTY.

ELLIOT WAVES

MY TRADING DAIRY

19-Mar-12
Since market opened below pivot assuming -ve bias sold MiniNifty at 5324.60.
As expected nifty slowly broken ORB and went on to S1. Being first day I did not wait up to S1. Squared off at 5291.8. later nifty gone beyond S1 and touched  5260.

Later at last half hour I found price is crossing WLEma and closed above it. Hence I have taken Long position at 5276.3. I don't know whether this is correct way or not, since price closed below DLEma and HLEma. Tomorrow  if market opens -ve I will Square off and see.

I Thank You Shri Illango for his continues coaching. Shri Ramki instilled hope in me. Shri Illango induced confidence in me. I thank both of them very much.

IMPORTANT NOTES

Ilango said...

@ VK,

I have revised the "Trade Table" to show only "re-entries" in the direction of JNSAR, though one could trade their JNSAR positions. This requires knowledge of few studies such as TA, ORB, Pivot trading.

Once in longs and market has travelled far from JNSAR and TT shows "Incomplete Uptrend", you could use ORB or other considerations to sell your JNSAR trade with a 20 point SAR(incase market resumes suddenly upwards). It is meant for "Intraday only".

By selling your JNSAR position in good profit, you lock in your profits and by re-entering in the direction you remain in JNSAR direction till a reversal emerges.

March 15, 2012 12:41 PM

PIVOT TRADING

Step 1
"In general, if the day's Price Action starts above the Pivot, it will tend to stay above the Pivot.
This simple observation provides the basic rules for two of the simplest Pivot trading systems.
System 1:
Open is above Pivot: Buy
Open is below Pivot: Sell
System 2:
Place Buy and Sell stops bracketing the Pivot. Whichever is not filled acts as safety stop for the other.
These "systems" are very much too raw for my tastes. Too much chance of getting whipsawed. Let's take it one step deeper. Let's refine these simple systems just a bit more:
Step 2
First Fundamental Of Pivot Trading After the opening range (first 15-30 min. to one hour), if price is above/below the Pivot, Price Action will strongly tend to remain above/below the Pivot for the session.
Although this rule bids us to wait out the Opening Range and thus avoid much of the wildness and whipsawing, overlooking the next Fundamental Of Pivot Trading could be disastrous:
Step 3
If the market opens, or later trades at the extremes (R2, R3 or S2, S3), it will exhibit a tendency to trade back toward the Pivot. Thus, the general rule, 'Avoid buying the High or selling the Low', becomes increasingly more stringent as price moves farther from the Pivot.